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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
From the first half of the news trading note we learned some ways to estimate what is priced in by the market. We learned that we are trading any gap in market expectations rather than the result itself. A good result when the market expected a fantastic result is disappointing! We also looked at second order thinking. After all that, I hope the reaction of prices to events is starting to make more sense to you. Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers: It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do. Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The trimming position effect
Some key FX releases
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
The majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP. Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data. A great resource that's totally free to use This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down. Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders. For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend. Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money. Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show. For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence. Helpful context There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers. There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.
Data surprise index
The other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic. You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference. If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative. Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers. When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish. These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.
Using recent events to predict future reactions
The market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects? That seems easy to answer but it is not. Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
Many times the market will shrug and ignore it.
But when the economic recovery is predicated on a strong consumer it may move markets a lot.
Or consider the S&P index of US stocks (Wall Street).
If you get good economic data that beats analyst estimates surely it should go up? Well, sometimes that is certainly the case.
But good economic data might result in the US Central Bank raising interest rates. Raising interest rates will generally make the stock market go down!
So better than expected data could make the S&P go up (“the economy is great”) or down (“the Fed is more likely to raise rates”). It depends. The market can interpret the same data totally differently at different times. One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event. For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then? 2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect. Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
A final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur. Buy the rumour, sell the fact In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed. So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.
Trimming or taking off positions
One thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes. Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions. The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus. But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.
Two kinds of reversals
Fairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way. These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.
Sometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it. For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers. Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.
Some reversals don't make sense Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth? This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.
Some key releases
As we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.
Interest rates decisions
These can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate. You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot. A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower. A central banker speaking is always a big event
Non farm payrolls
These are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities. There are three numbers:
The headline number of jobs created (bigger is better)
The unemployment rate (smaller is better)
Average hourly earnings (depends)
Bear in mind these headline numbers are often off by around 75,000. If a report comes in +/- 25,000 of the forecast, that is probably a non event. In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action. Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.
There are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc. Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here. A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.
Gross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing. In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time. This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release. In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.
Countries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate. See the FX fundamentals section for more details.
Things like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy. These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels. Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.
Often there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.
The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases. This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.
How economic news is released
First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020. In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots. No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners. Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup. Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price! Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!
How the news affects forex markets
Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent. It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast. Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators. Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market. The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US. Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com. Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles. I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present) USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present) The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all. For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected. The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up. I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.
So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report. Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters. Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk. Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not. Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one. The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest. Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered. I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized. For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade. Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot. Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from. Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade. That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.
Make it real
If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day. Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved. Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world. I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
Trading YYY/ZZZ pair with XXX currency (related to question in FAQ)
I am learning alot about forex but I have not found an explicit answer to this question. I am a bit confused about trading a pair of currencies when I do not own either currency. For example, my account is funded with CAD, so if I trade USD/EUR, am I not risking cancelling out potential gains or multiplying losses based on the fluctuation of CAD/USD at the same time? The answer to this question in the FAQ makes it sounds like it is a non issue: From the FAQ:
" I AM CONFUSED ABOUT THIS - HOW CAN I GET CURRENCY XXX IF I'M TRADING YYY/ZZZ?? This confuses many new traders. When you create your FX account, you will be nominating what the base currency is, this is usually the currency where you live. Live in the United States? USD. Live in Canada? CAD. Live in Tokyo? JPY. Live in The EU? EUR and so on.... That is the currency that all trades will be paid out in. The pairs that you trade have no bearing on this outcome. It may help to think of it in this way: "I am going long / going short on the asset known as USD/JPY and will be paid out in my base currency." Don't look at the pair you are trading as multiple exchanges, look at it as a single vehicle, this may help you."
From a risk mitigation stand point, would it be best practice to only trade pairs based on CAD/XXX or would it make more sense to convert my CAD funds to USD for the long term and gamble that the exchange rate remains roughly constant? If there are any resources you know of that address this question, please let me know! Thanks!
Open EUUSD position according to the euro-area PMI data
Financial markets base on mathematics. The divergence in the economic growth, having supported the EUUSD bulls during the summer, looked like an equation with one unknown. A better epidemiological situation in Europe than in the USA has almost convinced investors that the euro-area economy will be recovering faster than the US GDP. As a result, the rise of the major currency pair depended on the US economic data. A better economic performance, together with the Fed’s unwillingness to ease its monetary policy (which signals hidden optimism), sent the euro down to $1.18. However, once there appeared some negative, the euro bulls went ahead. The US jobless claims are again back to a level of above 1 million, the manufacturing PMI data reported by the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed are weak. These reports show that the US economy is not revering as rapidly as the dollar buyers would like. I have many times stressed that the market turns out to be more fundamental amid the interest rates of the world’s leading central banks, which are close to zero. Investors are quite responsive to the reports on the US domestic data, especially since the US economy has been that unknown in the growth- gap equation. The experts’ projections for the euro-area economy have been optimistic. In my opinion, too optimistic. Since the French-German stimulus plan was adopted, the euro risk reversals have been up by 60-80 basis points. The indicator has increased so rapidly only three times since the records began in 2006, and each time, the EUUSD was up by 5% and more in a few net months. There is an increased demand in the options market for call options with strikes of 1.22, 1.23, 1.25, and even 1.28.
Demand for euro-dollar options
Source: Bloomberg Investors completely forgot that an equation with one unknown could transform at any moment into an equation with two unknowns. In Europe, the second wave of the pandemic unfolding. In Spain, about 4,800 new COVID-19 cases are registered per day, which is the highest since April; in France, the number of coronavirus cases has increased by 50% in a week, in Germany, the figure has exceeded 1,500, the highest since early May. Yes, European relative indicators still fall short of the US, where 150 cases for 1 million of the population (in problematic Spain, there are 110 cases for 1 million), Yes, most infected are young people. Hence, the number of hospitalizations and deaths is small, but who knows how the situation will develop further? The difficulties will increase amid the expiration of programs to retain the non-working population in the labor force, which could result in a surge in unemployment and weigh on the consumer activity. The ECB stressed this problem at its July meeting, the central bank is willing to expand QE if necessary. It is a bearish factor for the EUUSD, but traders ignored it. The euphoria about the euro is still present and could end up bad for the euro buyers. The uncertainty about the euro-area economic recovery increases the risk that the euro will roll down to $1.18 if the euro-area PMI data for August are weak. For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-euro-took-up-math/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
Forex Trading: a Beginner's Guide The forex market is the world's largest international currency trading market operating non-stop during the working week. Most forex trading is done by professionals such as bankers. Generally forex trading is done through a forex broker - but there is nothing to stop anyone trading currencies. Forex currency trading allows buyers and sellers to buy the currency they need for their business and sellers who have earned currency to exchange what they have for a more convenient currency. The world's largest banks dominate forex and according to a survey in The Wall Street Journal Europe, the ten most active traders who are engaged in forex trading account for almost 73% of trading volume. However, a sizeable proportion of the remainder of forex trading is speculative with traders building up an investment which they wish to liquidate at some stage for profit. While a currency may increase or decrease in value relative to a wide range of currencies, all forex trading transactions are based upon currency pairs. So, although the Euro may be 'strong' against a basket of currencies, traders will be trading in just one currency pair and may simply concern themselves with the Euro/US Dollar ( EUUSD) ratio. Changes in relative values of currencies may be gradual or triggered by specific events such as are unfolding at the time of writing this - the toxic debt crisis. Because the markets for currencies are global, the volumes traded every day are vast. For the large corporate investors, the great benefits of trading on Forex are:
Enormous liquidity - over $4 trillion per day, that's $4,000,000,000. This means that there's always someone ready to trade with you
Every one of the world's free currencies are traded - this means that you may trade the currency you want at any time
Twenty four - hour trading during the 5-day working week
Operations are global which mean that you can trade with any part of the world at any time
From the point of view of the smaller trader there's lots of benefits too, such as:
A rapidly-changing market - that's one which is always changing and offering the chance to make money
Very well developed mechanisms for controlling risk
Ability to go long or short - this means that you can make money either in rising or falling markets
Leverage trading - meaning that you can benefit from large-volume trading while having a relatively-low capital base
Lots of options for zero-commission trading
How the forex Market Works As forex is all about foreign exchange, all transactions are made up from a currency pair - say, for instance, the Euro and the US Dollar. The basic tool for trading forex is the exchange rate which is expressed as a ratio between the values of the two currencies such as EUUSD = 1.4086. This value, which is referred to as the 'forex rate' means that, at that particular time, one Euro would be worth 1.4086 US Dollars. This ratio is always expressed to 4 decimal places which means that you could see a forex rate of EUUSD = 1.4086 or EUUSD = 1.4087 but never EUUSD = 1.40865. The rightmost digit of this ratio is referred to as a 'pip'. So, a change from EUUSD = 1.4086 to EUUSD = 1.4088 would be referred to as a change of 2 pips. One pip, therefore is the smallest unit of trade. With the forex rate at EUUSD = 1.4086, an investor purchasing 1000 Euros using dollars would pay $1,408.60. If the forex rate then changed to EUUSD = 1.5020, the investor could sell their 1000 Euros for $1,502.00 and bank the $93.40 as profit. If this doesn't seem to be large amount to you, you have to put the sum into context. With a rising or falling market, the forex rate does not simply change in a uniform way but oscillates and profits can be taken many times per day as a rate oscillates around a trend. When you're expecting the value EUUSD to fall, you might trade the other way by selling Euros for dollars and buying then back when the forex rate has changed to your advantage. Is forex Risky? When you trade on forex as in any form of currency trading, you're in the business of currency speculation and it is just that - speculation. This means that there is some risk involved in forex currency trading as in any business but you might and should, take steps to minimise this. You can always set a limit to the downside of any trade, that means to define the maximum loss that you are prepared to accept if the market goes against you - and it will on occasions. The best insurance against losing your shirt on the forex market is to set out to understand what you're doing totally. Search the internet for a good forex trading tutorial and study it in detail- a bit of good forex education can go a long way!. When there's bits you don't understand, look for a good forex trading forum and ask lots and lots of questions. Many of the people who habitually answer your queries on this will have a good forex trading blog and this will probably not only give you answers to your questions but also provide lots of links to good sites. Be vigilant, however, watch out for forex trading scams. Don't be too quick to part with your money and investigate anything very well before you shell out any hard-earned! The forex Trading Systems While you may be right in being cautious about any forex trading system that's advertised, there are some good ones around. Most of them either utilise forex charts and by means of these, identify forex trading signals which tell the trader when to buy or sell. These signals will be made up of a particular change in a forex rate or a trend and these will have been devised by a forex trader who has studied long-term trends in the market so as to identify valid signals when they occur. Many of the systems will use forex trading software which identifies such signals from data inputs which are gathered automatically from market information sources. Some utilise automated forex trading software which can trigger trades automatically when the signals tell it to do so. If these sound too good to be true to you, look around for online forex trading systems which will allow you undertake some dummy trading to test them out. by doing this you can get some forex trading training by giving them a spin before you put real money on the table. How Much do you Need to Start off with? This is a bit of a 'How long is a piece of string?' question but there are ways for to be beginner to dip a toe into the water without needing a fortune to start with. The minimum trading size for most trades on forex is usually 100,000 units of any currency and this volume is referred to as a standard "lot". However, there are many firms which offer the facility to purchase in dramatically-smaller lots than this and a bit of internet searching will soon locate these. There's many adverts quoting only a couple of hundred dollars to get going! You will often see the term acciones trading forex and this is just a general term which covers the small guy trading forex. Small-scale trading facilities such as these are often called as forex mini trading. Where do You Start? The single most obvious answer is of course - on the internet! Online forex trading gives you direct access to the forex market and there's lots and lots of companies out there who are in business just to deal with you online. Be vigilant, do spend the time to get some good forex trading education, again this can be provided online and set up your dummy account to trade before you attempt to go live. If you take care and take your time, there's no reason why you shouldn't be successful in forex trading so, have patience and stick at it!
Hard. Following up on my post about trading economic news, here are some hard numbers about news releases. If you can't be bothered to read any further, just know that a high S value means there is money to be made by trading the release of that economic metric. I collected historical data (consensus and actual) for each of these economic metrics from January 2018 to the present. These are mostly monthly metrics; one is quarterly, one is biweekly, and one is weekly. I did this manually from an economic news aggregation website because I'm too cheap to pay for exported data. I also noted whether each release was the primary (or only) news being released at that precise moment or whether there were other important economic metrics being released at the same time. Then I wrote software to fetch 2 minutes of USD/JPY price data (in 5 second candles) starting at the time of each release and correlated each candle to the "surprise" in the metric (the difference between the consensus and the actual). That produced data for each metric that looks like this and give you an idea how reliably the news predicts the short-term price move. Next the software went back through the price history and measured the "coordinated movement" of the currency pair during each candle. By that I mean it measured the size of each candle in pips and then set the sign to be positive if its moving in the same direction as the first candle or negative otherwise, and averaged all those numbers together. These charts look like this and give you an idea how dramatically the price moves in response to the news. Then, for each candle, the absolute value of the correlation is multiplied against the coordinated movement, creating a "tradeability" score. The idea is that a strong (positive or negative) correlation and a strong coordinated movement yields a high score, and either a weak correlation or a small price movement yields a low score. These charts look like this. Finally, for each news release I measured the maximum value of the correlation (R) and the maximum value of the tradeability score (S). Since I don't have access to anything with finer granularity than 5 seconds, it's no surprise that candle 0 had the maximum correlation and maximum tradeability for each metric. I did this process twice for every metric: first over all releases and second over only those releases that were the primary or only release happening at that moment. I kept the results from the one that returned the better net maximum tradeability score. The net maximum tradeability score is just the product of the maximum tradeability score and the number of releases being considered, either all of them or some smaller number. (This helps avoid bias in the results for metrics that are often released at the same time as other metrics.) In the results linked at the top of this post, the metrics are ordered by decreasing maximum tradeability score (S) with maximum correlation (R) also shown. Remember, R = +1 means perfect positive linear correlation, R = -1 means perfect negative linear correlation, and R = 0 means no correlation. S values less than 3 are essentially untradeable due to the spread. A couple notes:
Non Farms Payroll, one of the most closely watched economic indicators, is the most tradeable by far. Although not shown here, the correlation is even higher (0.8xx) if you omit those releases that occur simultaneously as other news, but because of the strong correlation and high pip movement it's better overall to consider all NFP releases.
Retail Sales is tradeable, but Personal Income and Personal Spending is not. This was a surprise to me, I haven't traded any of these metrics before. I'll have to look into what is exactly in each one to understand why this is.
With the exception of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, all of these releases are correlated with the price movement, but many of them aren't practical to trade because the movement is too small.
The negative sign and weak correlation on Inflation Rate MoM is a bug, I think. I got a different (positive) number when I ran it earlier, but then I was on a conference call while reformatting the data and I may have done something dumb. I'll go back and review it.
It takes me about 15 minutes to scrape 2 years of monthly data by hand and type it up, and then the software takes about 10 seconds to run per metric. If there are regular forecasted economic releases that you'd like to see correlated and scored, let me know! I can do other currency pairs and other country's economic news as well, it's just a matter of data collection.
Hello world. Long time lurker here. Wanna give a huge tip to all newbies out there thats thinking about strategies. (like "Buy when price crosses above moving average 10" or whatever) If you think you have a strategy (a set of rules) then theres no excuse not to backtest the rules! Lets say you wanna "Buy when moving average crosses over moving average" or whatever numbers or indicators or rules youre thinking about. All you gotta do is sign up with a broker (demo account!! free) that provides you with a software that allows you to backtest! The coding is 9/10 times super duper easy to learn and use. Just google for it and you should find multiple brokers that can provide different types of software to run backtests. "Cant you just backtest manually looking at chart?" - Well, you can! But this takes a long long time and you will not see exact results. Using a software you can test your strategy on all the different timeframes, multiple years back in time, on all the currency pairs you want to test it on. Heres an example, its my own algorithm (algorithm just means "set of rules") that i have created for USD/JPY, backtested from 2004 -> 2019 thats 15 years of backtesting! My system seemed profitable and robust so i decided to run this system live and its actually in a trade right now. So far its been profitable and good to me. For all you traders that do not rely on fixed systems/set of rules: Backtesting is very hard because if you rely on your own drawings and support/resistance lines, then backtesting is biased before you even begin.. unless your testing in "real time" which of course is much more valid. Non the less you should just scroll "back in time" on chart and start "trading" with "paper money" and just move 1 and 1 candle forward until you either see that your system is working or not. https://imgur.com/a/p8aVdIT Edit: Guess i never answered "Why" you should backtest. I started out trading stocks, then i realized "patterns" was a thing in every chart on all timeframes and i started to look at forex cus markets are plentiful and open 24/5. After a few hit and missed and busted tiny accounts i realized i needed to test my theories and strategies. Thats when i discovered that coming up with a strategy that actually works, year after year on multiple pairs, is not only hard, its realy fucking hard! And thats also when i realized how flawed my "plans to get rich in trading" really was.. When your just charting and drawing lines and trading on them, you dont really have a plan, and without a firm strict plan (at least for me) the pitfalls are many, and devastating. So i started looking at how to actually make profitable strategies, reading books and listening to podcasts, and today im running multiple strategies in multiple markets on multiple timeframes. So far ive been profitable. definitly not gonna quit my dayjob tomorrow, just so thats clear.. trading is risky and having a dayjob and monthly income is definitly something im gonna continue with lol.
Forex is the short way of saying “Foreign Exchange”. This means the global market for exchanging international currencies, also known as the FX market. When someone prices or exchanges a currency against another, the exchange rate is best on the particular forex trading pair (i.e., both currencies involved in the pair). Currency pairs are typically priced out to four decimal places, depending on the currency denomination, where one ten-thousandth of a unit of currency is known as a pip (i.e., 0.0001 unit), which is the smallest price increment (in addition to fractional-pips). The EUUSD, which is the most widely-traded forex pair, is an example of the Euro (EUR) currency against the US dollars (USD) currency. When trading one unit of EUUSD, you can calculate the price in USD (i.e., a price of EUUSD 1.3000 indicates $1.30 per euro). Conversely, when exchanging the USD/EUR, each unit of USD (i.e. each dollar) will have the prace of a specific number of euros (i.e., a USD/EUR price of 0.7700 indicates €0.77 per dollar). A speculator expecting the price of the EUUSD to go up. He will buy the EUUSD pair long (buying a pair to open a trade can be a bullish or long position). Whereas, a speculator anticipating a drop in the price of the EUUSD may sell the pair. (bearish or short position: selling to open a trade).
Largest international market Globally
The forex market is decentralized across the globe. It consists of dealers such as central banks, private and public banks, non-bank intermediaries, brokerages, and large corporations such as insurance giants and other participants engaged in international finance.
TheForeign Exchange marketis the largest globally, with nearly $6 trillion in average daily volume traded as of April 2019, according to the latestBISTriennial Survey of Central Banks.
The FX market suffers the influence mainly by each government’s monetary policy, the supply, and demand of the global economy. As well as international trade agreements, and users and suppliers of currencies (hedgers), in addition to speculators.
Market integrity and progress
While there have been cases of forex market manipulation by the biggest banks and dealers in the past, the amount of influence any one entity can have on the prices of major currencies is negligible. This resistance to serious manipulation risk is due to the enormous amount of trading and resulting liquidity available. The FX Market itself has high price integrity. Because it is an electronic market, efficient and with a certain size. Participants must still adhere to best practices.
Efforts such as theGlobal FX codewere launched to encourage forex dealers to uphold the best-execution where the best price available is given to traders.
These efforts are why the spreads and trading commissions continued to improve over the years, as the FX market evolved. In addition, regulators have competed to increase local market integrity and efficiency by creating more strict regulations. These come from the top-tier financial centers such as the US, UK, Singapore, Japan, Australia, among other advanced economies.
Investing and trading in the forex market
As an asset class, Forex is well-established and offered by many regulated brokerages from within a margin account.
The use of leverage is what makes forex trading more risky than non-margin investing.
Margin-based trading used by investors as well as self-directed traders and fund managers, thanks to the range of risk-management tools available within forex trading platforms (mobile, web, and desktop software). Wiseinvest provides trading signals with risk-management.
Forex market research and analysis
There are two primary ways for traders to assess and identify trading opportunities in the forex market.
One is through the use of fundamental analysis, which looks at economic news and data released by governmental agencies, as well as market sentiment data.
The second is through technical analysis, which pertains to the historical and current market price of the underlying currency.
Advanced forex trading strategies and algorithms
The foundation of successful trading in the forex market is having a trading strategy. It’s based on a specific methodology that best suits your trading needs. Strategies could be manual, automated, or a combination of both.
Over the past decade, there has been a proliferation of automated trading strategies made available for retail traders.
And while there are many serious traders with established track records for their trading systems, there are many more low-quality trading systems falsely marketed as high-quality by overly eager affiliates, making it harder for investors to navigate the market for trading signals.
There has also been an increase in the social copy trade. Where an operator can mimic other operators’ businesses in real time.
Whether using a copy-trading platform or an automated trading system, in almost all cases, this type of investing is considered self-directed and doesn’t require a power-of-attorney or another third-party money manager to handle your account. Unlike other copy and social trading platforms, Wiseinvet’s AI has the ability to execute a huge set of market data. It does by combining technical and fundamental analysis. This strategy can increase the accuracy of trading signals.
Self-directed forex investors
Compared to investing in a managed fund, there is greater responsibility. Traders put it on self-directed traders who use trading systems. A self-directed trader should conduct more detailed due diligence. It can avoid falling for the countless low-quality trading systems that exist on the internet.
Good quality trading systems will have established track records (historical results), and there will be other quantitative performance rankings, along with qualitative data about the strategy developers and any proprietary math used to operate the strategy.
Bad quality trading systems will usually promise high returns will not equally emphasizing potential risk.
There are no guarantees that a strategy will perform well. But conducting proper due diligence can help traders assess various trading systems. They consider using them to aid their trading or investment strategy.
For the past 4 years I've been working on crypto currency algo trading software bot. With skill and luck I profited handsomely netting multiple millions USD in the bank at this point. Around this time a year ago on good days the strategy was making tens of thousands of dollars. Nowadays as the trading slowed down significantly, but its still making couple thousands per month, sometimes more. During the past 4 years I only had a few negative months (mostly due to bugs in the software). The more volatility there is the more money the strategy is making. For example during the recent drop of price from $6k to current level of $3k the profits were almost $10K. Currently I'm considering my options. Being a bit tired of this business and I'm contemplating moving on to something else. At the same time I could take it to a new level and build a company around this business. The software I developed is quite solid. I'm pretty confident that it can be applied to any kind of market - forex, equities, options, futures. There is a lot of upside in it, even in the crypto markets. I'm only trading the most busy markets/currency pairs (I'm a one man army so I focused only on what's feasible for a single mind to handle). I made some initial backtesting and there is scaling potential to hundreds of crypto currency pairs across multiple exchanges. That being said how can I find market for my business/sofware? Who might be interested to buy it? How do I price it? Edit: The main reason I'm looking to exit is that I'm tired of it. There are lots of aspects of this job. I constantly have to monitor the software for errors. Exchange sometimes change APIs without notice, network configurations and certificates change, AWS instances go corrupt. I'm running my own hardware, and couple of months ago one of the hard drives dies and I had to re-seed everything. It took over a week to get things back in shape. This is the non-sexy part of this job. There is a lot of moving part and upkeep. By starting a fund and hiring people I could delegate all this, but I feel more like taking painting classes rather than building a company. But like I said, I feel like there is a lot of upside.
The week has started and was led by the only title and header around all economic news which is “US-China trade wars”. US-China trade wars in general had its effect on all markets, including cryptocurrency. The United States wants to tighten cryptocurrency use and claimed that it’s been used by smugglers and drug-dealers and pointed out that most of the transactions are made in China. This week BTC tried to break $10500 on Monday, August 26th and was rejected, the price then was floating between $10400-10300 and continued the correction down to $10027. Uncertainty in the BTC has ended when the price hit $10400 again and showed a massive drop to $9366. We will point out several reasons of this week’s drop. The drop could be a result of an update in the US when rumors on crypto-currency taxation became real. Several notes sent by the IRS to crypto-currency holders pushed some investors to get rid of the BTC and led to a major sell. The Wright and Kleiman case brings another reason to worry about. If Kleiman family surely inheritedbillions of $worth of Bitcoin, then they should declare IRSthe quantity and pay state taxes. Most probably, when these BTC’s received if they exist, the Kleiman family will sell them, which will result another drop-down of BTC. CME Exchange’s futurescontracts forBitcoin is expiring today, though the Exchange showed a record-high $515Mdaily trading volume in May, futures expiry date gave extra-strength to sellers. The price by the time published is traded at $9608 per BTC, from the technical point of view the price still has to find greater grounds for another massive jump. https://preview.redd.it/8f0tliwapnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=64a5214d8a583bd7b7f3dcdd5f3de63290697050 Though we can see that a double-bottom pattern in 1-hour chart and most likely BTC will test $9750 https://preview.redd.it/vib20xqcpnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=06b1a9de59c8c76ecc447b5e2b0a8d506a79c12b CME Exchange will continue to offer Bitcoin futures which is a positive sign for the cryptocurrency and announcement of the release of ICE-backed Bakkt Bitcoin futuresin September 23 could be that pump to get the price above $10K.
Now let’s move to Forex market
The pair to watch this week and the next week isEURUSD. Economy of Germany which EU's locomotive and other countries are cars, has showed a slight 0.1% decrease in the second quarter of 2019 related to the previous quarter. We can never deny the fact that the EU union with all its economy and power of its currency is completely dependent to the economic well-being of Germany. If the third quarter of this year doesn't show mercy to Germany's economy or Germany doesn't change policies to not only stabilize but improve the economy, the EU should prepare well for recession. Not only economic state of Germany but rumors and news and overall hype over Brexit and Italy's economic crisisare considered to bea sinker of Euro against USD. For Euro to gain powerand for EURUSD to show an uptrend again, firstly all rumors and preparations on recession should be reduced to nothing and EU states should do the needful to prevent the new economic crisis. This week’s economic data from Germany was not positive, IFO Business Climatewasbelow forecasted 95.1 and 94.3 was announced, German GDP was -0.1. These were news which weakened the European currency, although the worst scenario was yet to come. Thursday, August 29 Germany made an announced on the unemployment, and the number was four times higher than on the previous unemployment change, 4K. Since the announcement EURUSD was showing downwards movement and plummeted to 1.0990 If no signs of progress are shown next week, especially if the German Manufacturing PMI numbers don’t show positive, the price will continue downtrend to 1.0950 and find the next support at 1.0850 https://preview.redd.it/cso52ruepnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=21e4bdfed18b0bcce872b8714efa4d5d8fdc8b71 The political tension between EU and UK, US and Chinalast week showed us more-or-less unpredictable movements in US, China, HK, EU, UK stock market indices. Since the “trade-war” begun and US applying higher tariffs on Chinese goods and China taking counter-action the only gainers of these back-to-back pokes were Gold and Silver. Gold showed one more time that it’s the most trusted asset to invest. The price hit $1555 highs this week and is now showing signs of short-term correction being traded at $1526. Major Investment institutions such as UBS and Citigroup look positive on Goldsnew summit ascents. Mainly UBS has stated that the next week the price could reach $1600. From the technical point we can see that the price is trying to break the barrier at 1530, and is still unlucky. https://preview.redd.it/huvtsyugpnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ccae0383301cabe7b0b479bde81b72cee5aa81c This could mean that if the support at $1520 is broken, the correction will continue to $1515 and $1507. If the downtrend is impulsive the price will reach $1494, where it will find support and another upwards move shall be expected. https://preview.redd.it/oyzz33oipnj31.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ae2f71cb0fece2770bcff716bd59d39e7a9245d At the other hand, confirmation of Gold’s uptrend move will be breaking of resistance at $1530 where the price shall face a mile-stone of resistances at 1545-1563-1571. From the Global prospective we should follow the upcoming Manufacturing PMI’s announcements of Germany and the US, US Non-Farm payrolls and Unemployment rates. Pay a very close attention to announcements of these three states Australia, UK and Canada, as well.Report prepared by analysts from PrimeXBT.
MPs, state legislatures, or local bodies such as municipal corporations cannot be on the boards of public sector banks. Also, partners of chartered accountancy firms engaged as statutory central auditors at any PSB cannot join the boards of these banks, RBI said in an updated circular on fit and proper criteria in PSBs. -Economic Times The RBI clarified that banks and NBFCs cannot impose foreclosure charges / pre-payment penalties on any floating rate term loan sanctioned, for purposes other than business, to individual borrowers with or without co-obligant(s). The RBI has done away with foreclosure charges /pre-payment penalties on all floating rate term loans sanctioned to individual borrowers with effect from May 7, 2014. -Business Line IMPS is gaining traction and the number of transactions rose to 19 crores in July even as the transaction value for UPI and the Centre’s flagship digital payment app BHIM continued to decline for the second straight month. According to data released by the NPCI, IMPS hit a record high in July in terms of value, too. As many as 18.92 crore transactions amounting to over ₹1.82-lakh crore were conducted through IMPS in July against 17.13 crore transactions worth over ₹1.73-lakh crore in June. -Business Line Clearcorp Dealing Systems India Ltd (Clearcorp), a wholly owned subsidiary of Clearing Corporation of India Ltd, will launch its forex trading platform, FX-Retail, for the customers of banks on Aug 5. The FX-Retail platform will provide an anonymous and order driven dealing in US Dollar (USD) / Indian Rupee (INR) currency pair for bank customers -- individuals, sole proprietorship firms, partnership firms and corporates, Clearcorp said in a statement. -Business Line Corporation Bank registered a net profit of ₹103.27 crore in the first quarter of 2019-20 as against a profit of ₹84.96 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, recording a growth of 21.55%. -Business Line SBI today said the RBI has imposed a penalty of Rs 50 lakh on it for non-compliance relating to reporting of frauds. -Economic Times Oriental Bank of Commerce & Punjab National Bank today said the RBI has imposed a penalty of Rs 50 lakhs on them for non-compliance relating to reporting of frauds in the Kingfisher Airlines account. -Economic Times Bandhan Bank would open 187 new branches by the end of the current FY, taking the total number to 1,187, a top official said today. The bank would also open 340 doorstep service centres by 2019-20, MD & CEO Chandra Sekhar Ghosh said. -Economic Times Punjab & Sind Bank said it has declared NPA account Fairdeal Supplies Ltd as a fraud and has reported the matter to the RBI, it said in a regulatory filing. -Economic Times LIC Housing Finance reported an 8% increase in standalone net profit at ₹611 crore in the first quarter (Q1FY20) against ₹568 crore in the year-ago period. -Business Line Former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Friday said that any government trying to “raid” the balance sheet of a central bank can be seen as a desperate move. -Business Line A spate of reforms undertaken by the Government has led to the current slowdown in the country, Amitabh Kant, the CEO of policy think-tank NITI Aayog, said. This came as a note of caution from the senior official as he was advocating a series of policy decisions to revive the economy. -The Hindu The country's forex reserves decreased by $727 million to $429.649 billion for the week ended July 26, led by a decline in foreign currency assets, RBI data showed on Friday. -Moneycontrol.com As the Rajya Sabha passed the Code on Wages, 12 Central Trade Unions, except the BMS, held protest across the country demanding the Centre to withdraw the proposed Labour Codes. Terming the 4 proposed codes anti-labour, the trade unions alleged that the Bills are being passed without any tripartite negotiations with trade unions, chambers of commerce and the Governments. They alleged that there is a conspiracy to take away the right to work for 8 hours and give the power to the State governments and the Centre to set working hours. -Business Line
Would any experienced traders (or inexperienced) share some insight please.
Good day to all you experienced and inexperienced traders alike.. Pardon me for this extremely long post, and i thank you in advance for spending the time to read this. Basically.. I'm really passionate about Forex, not because of getting rich. But because i just love what Forex is and the ability to be well informed and stuff. For example.. it interests me how banks work, how monetary policy affects currencies and stuff.. I love the idea of being able to predict what is going to happen to a country/currency in the coming months and i love the thought of being informed about such stuff.. I come from a country where everyday is a 9-5 office job for majority of the country, in fact, Forex seems to be non-existent here (maybe its just me), its hard to find a mentor (because i know that it is important that one must learn live trading from a mentor to see his/her perspectives), but because only a minority (if it exists) does Forex.. its extremely hard to find a mentor.. Not only that.. There are 'courses' here that charge 4000USD for a single course which im pretty sure is just basic TA and FA that can be found on Youtube. The only thing i can teach myself is stuff that can be found online.. Mostly TA, i have spent time and time over again to practice, buying at supports, selling at resistance. Candlesticks pattern etc and never going against a trend.. I started demo trading last October and i just started live trading on January this year. In my first week, i started with a live account of 200USD and with TA alone, i made 310 USD in a week. I felt unstoppable, i felt confident and that i know Forex in and out. I figured that i could trade my lifetime relying on TA alone. The 2nd and 3rd week were all profits without a single loss, earning and earning, i grew my account from 200 to 850 in a matter of 3 weeks. Then, it went downhill. There was a week i cant remember, where i traded USD pairs and on that week, it was a really hectic week for USD as there were alot of news revolving it. (correct me if im wrong, which i think i am, it was the week where there was Trump's testimony or something like that, and then there was Theresa May's meeting with Trump and strengthening the pound) I took quite a hit of -120 dollars in total and because i didnt keep a journal then, i started to panic. Over the next few weeks, i tried to develop new TA analysis, usage of Bollinger Bands, MACD etc.. When i had profit, i was happy and thought 'this is the analysis that i will stick to', but when i had losing trades, i went on to tweak my methods. I think it was the ending of Feburary where i was lying on my bed and thinking, why dont i just trade like how i did on the first few weeks, since it ended in many correct trades. So i began using my method of trading in week 1-3. During that week, i had a little bit more profit than i had over the last couple of losing weeks. (my account was at 400 balance at this point in time) However, i was confused and sceptical to trade as i was really unsure.. Everytime i look at the charts, it was already either oversold or overbought on the RSI, and on the charts, a huge trend just took place and it was nearing either support or resis. I would trade against the trend when it was nearing resis/support and i got screwed really badly. Today, i just blew my account trading EURJPY and EURUSD sell. I entered EURJPY at 129.626 and EURUSD at 1.22624. I kept holding even when my trades were going against me because i stubbornly refused to close, believing that my analysis was right. I kept holding as i thought 'its already overbought, surely it'll retrace soon' but it didnt. Its even worst because during the first few weeks where i was confident in my trades, i wanted to do my part to be a filial son, ( i come from an average family) and i told my mom and dad that i wanted to make money for them. They invested in me 1k USD which i am close to blowing it all, its sitting at 450USD now.. all due to my ignorance. I was disappointed, frustrated that i blew my account. It is of course naive and stupid to think thoughts like ' i should have closed earlier when my losses could have been minimized' but what if it went to profit instead?? I was stupid and ignorant and i regret it. It was today that i realize that i have to pair fundamentals with technicals, but im just berating myself because i dont know where to start learning fundamentals, or actually, Forex as a whole.. I've been using indicators, such as RSI, automated trendlines and atuomated support/resistance.. I know that plain naked chart with self drawn S/R lines are best.. but i just dont know how to do it.. I do know that i shouldn't harp on the fact that i blew my account because everyone goes through it at least once, but i cant help it, the feeling sucks. So that brings me to the question.. Would any experienced traders out there share where they learnt Fundamentals with TA?? It will be even better if a link or a book/course could be provided alongside it. I have always wanted to learn Fundamentals but because it is so broad, i don't know where to start. The only thing i know is that high impact news on the economic calender usually affects a currency long term, like FOMC/ interest rates etc.. I just dont know where and how to start learning it... Would appreciate if i could get a little help.. Be it in recommendations of books or links/courses. Sorry guys for this extremely lengthy post, would really appreciate it if i can get any insight at all.. Thank you guys so much.. My results on a live account the first 2 weeks, in case anyone was curious: https://imgur.com/a/f2UGwhttps://imgur.com/a/o2b1Z
Hello all. I will make this quite frank. I've been noticing dangerous advise being spread around the forums that is based too much on hype and I do not want the layman investor to suffer. We are all here to profit intelligently, not to gamble. So I would just like to offer a few tips to new investors of stellar. I am not a stock professional but have ties to the finance industry and have dabbled in forex and investments. I got burned so that you don't have to, so heed my advise. Especially since I have institutional friends who have helped me along the way (think Goldman, BNP, JP, etc). Tips: 1.) Do not over-diversify your portfolio but pay attention to exposure. Investing is all about the risk-reward ratio. Greater risk does not always mean greater reward. For example, I have 80% of my portfolio in traditional investment vehicles like real estate investment trusts, stocks, bonds, and exchange traded funds. 20% is for cryptos however this is what I consider my 'play' money since cryptos are a very young market, that is based more on potential rather than value (you can't gauge the financial health of crypto using traditional tools like cashflow analysis or price/earnings ratios). I think cryptos are incredibly valuable but going all in especially with the inflated nature of bitcoin, would be dangerous for any of you, so I would suggest you diversify between traditional and cryptos. 2.) Reduce crypto risk by analyzing competitors to your alt coin. As I said before, do not overcompensate this diversification but bet for and against a crypto. In forex institutions use this tool to limit exposure to currency volatility. Imagine you go long GBP/USD, then you should naturally short GBP/CAD to a degree in order to limit exposure, but maximize growth potential. In the crypto world crypto pairs aren't really traded so they are illiquid markets, but I would suggest hedging a bit of stellar with XRP and even bitcoin. With this strategy I have been able to mitigate my losses from the recent stellar drop. Picture cryptos as a ranked list with the most valuable on top and the worst in the bottom. If BTC is on the top of your ranked list and XLM is in 3rd place but XRP is in 2nd place, then short XRP/BTC and go long XRP/XLM. I know these pairings don't all exist but it's to give you an idea how to think about the market. 3.) Support and resistance is important for technical analysis. The way you determine this is simply by seeing the area where past price action has not been able to surpass (resistance) or where past price action has not been able to drop below (support). Usually when a support or resistance level is tested multiple times it becomes stronger. However, there are ways to guess how breakouts are formed. See the chart below. https://imgur.com/u9r2e0c In the chart you have what is called accumulation. The price keeps testing the 400 resistance mark, making it a stronger barrier, however every dip in price is higher than the proceeding dip. This signals that there is a solid accumulation that will result in a break out. Just because a price level is tested multiple times does not mean there is a break out. You need to usually have such an accumulation phase (think of the imagery of stairs). In the same chart you can also see the price has not been able to really go below 400 because it is the new support level and the more it tests it, the stronger the barrier will become. 4.) Statistics has a fine way of helping us in our journey. My best friend is a mathematician and was able to offer advise on statistical trend setting. He stated that the longer the trend is set, the higher probability that it will keep going in that direction. Sounds obvious right? Well there is some truth to this but this goes right to my next point. 5.) For every second and moment you have a position open you increase your risk exponentially. This is why high frequency trading exists. So I am trying to offer a nuanced point that while trend continuation is statistically likely, so is the exponential increase of risk. These two last tips are particularly for leveraged traders. 6.) Be creative. Try to implement value investing criteria on cryptos in order to assess the true value of your chosen currency, whatever that may be. It can truly be difficult for ones like Bitcoin but for centralized cryptos like XRP and non profits like XLM it isn't too difficult. I saw an investor here requesting stellars financial statements and had a slight grin. That is the type of investor you should be. Vigilant, because more than making money, we should all be focusing on protecting money. Do not be greedy, because you will be susceptible to hot tips and emotion. Make 'preserving' your capital a priority. As long as you are gaining above inflation, all of you are winning. And now... 7.) Luck number 7! Anyway, buying on the dips is a great strategy, especially when it is testing a support or resistance zone that has been tested a bit before. Buying into a dip in a zone that has only been tested once is a bit risky. You want to see a form of sustainable accumulation. 8.) Do not simply invest in a crypto purely based on the dip. I will admit I have done this sometimes to an extent and it is okay. But the point of this post is to encourage you to do your homework and measure valuations, based on market volume, liquidity, technological announcements, and financial statements. The reason I sometimes partially ignore this is because I usually enter investments to hold at least 8 months -1 year minimum. 9.) Centralization and decentralization do not matter in crypto. I know XRP gets hate and I'd prefer stellar lumens, but that is not purely a reason to not invest in a currency. With centralization you get more compliance and regulatory oversight which marks higher security in investment. Cryptos are amazing, but with institutional involvement, this is an important case to make. 10.) Governments do not have conventional ways to regulate cryptos, but they do have tools to manipulate the market, so be attentive. All it takes is one major country to become heavily involved, in order to ensure a large price drop. 11.) DO NOT SHORT! I REPEAT DO NOT SHORT! Leave this to the professionals. Whereas with buying a currency you have a limited downward risk (you only have the risk to lose all your money), with shorting you effectively have no price floor to limit risk and exposure since the price theoretically has unlimited growth potential. If you decide to short stellar at 0.10 cents then you can lose all your investment and even be in debt (depends on leveraging), because the price can go anywhere from 0 cents to infinity. When you buy, you limit your risk to 0 cents which is where you lose all your money, but maximize growth potential which is technically infinite. This plays into the concept that the longer you have a position open, the greater the exponential risk. I hope you all enjoyed my guide. I am by no means an expert and am new to cryptos, however I've had associates involved for longer and friends that are also in finance (I worked in the back office of a private equity firm even though that wasn't glorious).
Coinexx.com is one of the new- gen hybrid Crypto Forex Broker. They offer Forex CFDs, Commodities, Indies and Crypto pairs for trading. The competitive spreads, low commissions and good trading conditions are getting the broker rave reviews. Coinexx doesn’t require any identity verification for traders to set up an account. The broker has a strict “no fiat” policy meaning you cannot deposit in traditional fiat currencies. They offer 25 crypto currencies to deposit and withdraw at no cost. The deposits are auto & instant and withdrawals within 24 hours. They offer both metatrader platforms, i.e. MT4 and MT5 to clients to trade on their ECN account. The traders can choose between a BTC, BCC, LTC, USD and ETH base currency account. What Stands Out - Any to Any deposit & withdrawals between 25 altcoins -Tight Spreads- 500X leverage and leveraged crypto pairs -Commission at just $2 per lot, lowest from our list of brokers - No Verification Anonymous Account Opening - Accepts US clients, Canadian Clients and is NON ESMA - Live Chat Support 24/5 (unusual for a Crypto Broker) - Trust Factor – 5/5 stars Con – MT4 Missing. The broker argues that since Meta Quotes will not be updating MT4 and all ultimately MT4 brokers will have to transition to MT5 so they decided to offer MT5 only. More of their business decision not a Con per say. [Update: Coinexx is now offering MT4 platform to traders] Scam Alert – NIL PS: the review is based on facts collected from internet as well as other forums and after testing the broker's live account by our moderators. Let us know what you think about the broker in the comments below and/or if you hold a different view that what has been said above. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Breaking News: Coinexx acquired FinPro Trading. What does this mean for FinPro Trading traders? You will continue to trade on the same MT4 trading terminal that you are currently using at Finpro, with your existing MT4 login ID/Password. The commission charges will continue to be the same while the spreads will become better than what they used to be at Finpro.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION The advancement in Blockchain technology has sprout the interest of many people in crypto currency, this has created the need for more user friendly crypto exchanges where investors can trade their coin/token seamlessly. Crypto currencies exchange is the widest platform to buy and sell coins and although exchanges constantly evolve and improve, there are challenges and problems that must be critically looked into. It is against this backdrop I deem it fit to review Nebula Crypto Exchange project. WHAT IS NEBULA? Nеbulа is a сrурtосurrеnсу еxсhаngе whісh targets at рrоvіding support fоr сrурtосurrеnсіеѕ that struggle tо fіnd affordable listing, the aim of the Nebula Team is to bring value and pave way to small Cryptocurrency to get listed whісh mоѕt renowned еxсhаngеѕ have оvеrlооkеd in the раѕt twо уеаrѕ and rejected their offer of been listed. Nеbulа also allows uѕеrѕ and trаdеrѕ tо rаtе projects wіth a rерutаtіоn ѕуѕtеm, similar to how рrоduсtѕ аrе rаtеd оn e-commerce рlаtfоrmѕ lіkе Amаzоn It offers industry-leading ѕаfеtу features to еnѕurе thе ѕаfеtу of the uѕеrѕ fund. The Nebula platform will also offfеrѕ аn іntеrеѕtіng rating ѕуѕtеm to gеt feedback frоm uѕеrѕ whісh works into thеіr reputation system. This creates аn еxсіtіng есоlоgісаl ѕуѕtеm for tokens where mеmbеrѕ share their оріnіоnѕ аnd еаrn points for ѕuсh соmmunіtу соntrіbutіоnѕ. Add tо thаt the large numbеr оf tokens аvаіlаblе and hіgh lеvеrаgе for mаrgіn trеаdіng, іt is little wonder thаt people аrе intrigued by thіѕ prospect. Nеbulа also оffеrѕ еxсіtіng rаtіng and regulation systems fоr tokens аllоwіng mеmbеrѕ tо ѕhаrе their оріnіоnѕ on thе latest token оffеrіngѕ and earn роіntѕ fоr соmmunіtу соntrіbutіоnѕ. This unique rаtіng ѕуѕtеm, along wіth other fеаturеѕ, are hіghlу аntісіраtеd tо be ѕuссеѕѕful and to progress wоrthу and lеgіtіmаtе рrоjесtѕ. WHY IS NEBULA EXCHANGE UNIQUE? Swift transaction with less charges Margin trading Fund is highly secured Trading of security token will be possible Very responsive support team Incentives for referral, etc PROBLEMS OF EXISTING TRADITIONAL CRYPTO EXCHANGE When trading cryptocurrency, traders often faced with numerous challenges, below are some of the problems;
Transaction Delays: A common complaint of cryptocurrency trading is the delays in almost every transaction. Most platforms are slow to use, all the way from registering an account to making a sale. Most trades need to be mined for a trade to go through, which raises costs for people even higher, on top of the commissions the platforms make to stay in business. As more individuals join the blockchain, it gets slower, and exchanges are regularly stuck in the line sitting tight for endorsement. This at that point means speculators and makes the entire procedure troublesome and unrewarding for each dealer.
Price Manipulation: Another name for price control is purchase dividers and offer dividers, which are begun by a gathering of people in the crypto showcase, alluded to as whales. In crypto exchanging, price control is the main source of the unpredictability of crypto markets. New financial specialists dependably appear to be on the wrong end of this movement. Numerous unpracticed individuals won't have the capacity to peruse the indications of the purchase divider, and rather, consider it to be a positive cost. Driven by obliviousness and defective rationale, numerous will imagine that the cost will expand, so they race to purchase. Lamentably, this inevitably prompts more weight on little time financial specialists, who think that its difficult to enter the market at a particular value run. While the whales, or huge speculators, can do the control of the market without spending excessively cash. At the point when the price moves in a whale's support, the whale would then be able to move their position and move the value run once more.
Forex And Binary: the issue of Forex and Binary choices. At the present minute, numerous Forex organizations like EToro and FXPro have recorded crypto exchanging as a possibility for their stages. These crypto postings regularly accompany a get rich speedy mindset that draws a great many unpracticed financial specialists, who at that point wind up losing the majority of their cash inside minutes. Sadly, most forex merchants neglect to comprehend that forex financiers don't take into account the open market. Rather, they go after the benefits of clueless speculators, who utilize them as counterparty. While a few merchants trust that administrations manage the Forex advertise, regularly they overlook that the controller basically tosses in a disclaimer, which adds up to simply only a couple of expressions of caution.
Fake News: Fake news is an extreme issue for cryptographic forms of money, as these stories can be grabbed by editors in online networking channels and dispersed to a colossal gathering of people. Regularly, these stories are not reality checked and may even contain purposeful mistakes to influence the general's sentiment about a specific kind of coin.
Lack of liquidity: is pushing volatility One of the biggest problems facing cryptocurrency exchanges is an endemic lack of liquidity. The lack of liquidity, in turn, makes it hard for traders and investors to exit the market at profitable prices. When trading cryptocurrency, traders often have to up their sale and wait for the order to be filled. However, the fact that many exchanges don’t have a reserve pool means that traders must wait until there’s a willing buyer on the network before their order is filled. Hence, many traders often find themselves trapped in the market beyond the timing of their exit signal.
PROJECT ROADMAP The project will follow a timeline, it is the desire of the team that all aspect of the roadmap is actualize at the state time frame. PHASE ONE: Q4 2017 -project launch. PHASE TWO: Q1 2018 -web and mobile platform completion. -new website. -private beta. PHASE THREE: Q2 2018 -web and mobile platfrom launch. -pairings with ETH, USDT and EURT. -ICO. PHASE FOUR: Q3 2018. -listing of NESC tokens. -pairings with BTC. -expansion to non-ERC20 currencies. -listing of security tokens. PHASE FIVE: Q4 2018 -mobile app launch on android. -pairings with KRW, JPY. TOKEN AND ICO DETAILS The token sale is ongoing with percentage bonus for early purchase, fund generated during the crowdsale will be used for development of the platform for smooth runnings. Find the details of the ICO below; Token Name: Nebula Token Ticker: NESC Token Price: USD 0.40 Private Pre-Sale Soft Cap: USD 500,000 Public Sale Hard Cap: USD 20,000,000 Upper Cap on Total Tokens generated: 100,000,000 Kindly visit the website below for more information about this amazing project; Website here >>> https://nebula.exchange/ WRITER'S BITCOINTALK Username: Elachious123
05-20 03:54 - 'Best Forex Indicator Cashpower' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/ForexIndicator removed from /r/Bitcoin within 9-19min
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Forex Margin Trading : a trading system where investors can trade at USD 100,000 but only use 1% guarantee is USD 1,000 . Forex Margin Trading is a form of investment in which the relatively small margin we can transact sell or buy currencies in the world with a high rate of return . Instruments traded in the forex market is a currency pair ( pair ) such as EURUSD , GBPUSD , USDJPY , AUDCHF , GBPJPY etc . Market Participants : Central Banks , Foreign Banks , Institutions Non Bank Financial ( Brokers , Insurance Companies , Investment Manager , etc. ) , Exporters / Importers, Traders Large , Investor ( Individual / Corporate ) share buying tips : Trading Forex Trading traded with Assurance System that has a main condition as follows: 1. Transactions carried out with a two-way Open BUY - SELL Close Open SELL - BUY Close 2. The investment fund is required only for WARRANT position open trade (Open BUY or SELL Open) and if the position of the trade has been closed (Close BUY or Close SELL), and may be in withdrawal or in traded back for the next transaction. 3. The purpose of the transaction is to gain of SPREADS buying and selling by the formula calculation of profit / loss. 4. Guarantee capital to trade starting from 1 - 10% or under the rules of account opening and regulations of Stock Index Futures Trading and Forex Trading. 5. Transactions carried out in standard units LOT with MINIMUM ot or multiples thereof. 6. Online Trading Transactions performed with Traders use Metaquotes Software Version 4:00 or 5:00 TAKORADI, Ghana https://moneyonlineinvestment.com/\_/share\_buying\_tips/r346179\_Who-is-share-buying-tips/Ghana.html
NEBULA EXCHANGE; THE BEST PROSPECTIVE CRYPTO EXCHANGE
Greetings ladies and gentlemen, are you into crypto currency trading?, do you experience delay in transaction during trading? do encounter excessive trading fee? have you lost your fund to an Exchange? I pressume you might have experienced such challenges in your previous days of trading on exchange, I bring good news to you because with the Nebula Exchange all this listed problems have been solved, kindly take time to read through my review, also visit the Nebula White and Website for more information. INTRODUCTION There is no gainsaying that the invention of Blockchain technology has sprout the interest of many people in crypto currency, this has created the need for more user friendly crypto exchanges where investors can trade their coin/token seamlessly. Crypto currencies exchange is the widest platform to buy and sell coins and although exchanges constantly evolve and improve, there are challenges and problems that must be critically looked into. It is against this backdrop I deem it fit to review Nebula Crypto Exchange project. Nebula exchange is a centralized exchange platform that deals on cryptocurrency exchange and tends to blend the crypto trading platform with updated news, technical analyses from various experts and review from users for a refined trading experience. We believe that users that are just coming into the trade need information beyond the price and volume of cryptocurrencies and we are set to provide them with all the necessary information required to make concrete decisions on investment on cryptocurrencies and appreciate the trade while making huge profits on their investments. PROBLEMS OF TRADITIONAL CRYPTO EXCHANGES Lack of liquidity is pushing volatility been the biggest problems facing cryptocurrency exchanges is an endemic lack of liquidity. The lack of liquidity, in turn, makes it hard for traders and investors to exit the market at profitable prices. When trading cryptocurrency, traders often have to up their sale and wait for the order to be filled. However, the fact that many exchanges don’t have a reserve pool means that traders must wait until there’s a willing buyer on the network before their order is filled. Hence, many traders often find themselves trapped in the market beyond the timing of their exit signal. Transaction Delays Another common complaint of cryptocurrency trading is the delays in almost every transaction. Most platforms are slow to use, all the way from registering an account to making a sale. Most trades need to be mined for a trade to go through, which raises costs for people even higher, on top of the commissions the platforms make to stay in business. As more individuals join the blockchain, it gets slower, and exchanges are regularly stuck in the line sitting tight for endorsement. This at that point means speculators and makes the entire procedure troublesome and unrewarding for each dealer. Exchange delays are only a portion of the various issues that Price Manipulation Another name for price control is purchase dividers and offer dividers, which are begun by a gathering of people in the crypto showcase, alluded to as whales. In crypto exchanging, price control is the main source of the unpredictability of crypto markets. New financial specialists dependably appear to be on the wrong end of this movement. Numerous unpracticed individuals won't have the capacity to peruse the indications of the purchase divider, and rather, consider it to be a positive cost. Driven by obliviousness and defective rationale, numerous will imagine that the cost will expand, so they race to purchase. Lamentably, this inevitably prompts more weight on little time financial specialists, who think that its difficult to enter the market at a particular value run. While the whales, or huge speculators, can do the control of the market without spending excessively cash. At the point when the price moves in a whale's support, the whale would then be able to move their position and move the value run once more. Forex And Binary Another issue with digital currency exchanging is the issue of Forex and Binary choices. At the present minute, numerous Forex organizations like EToro and FXPro have recorded crypto exchanging as a possibility for their stages. These crypto postings regularly accompany a get rich speedy mindset that draws a great many unpracticed financial specialists, who at that point wind up losing the majority of their cash inside minutes. Sadly, most forex merchants neglect to comprehend that forex financiers don't take into account the open market. Rather, they go after the benefits of clueless speculators, who utilize them as counterparty. While a few merchants trust that administrations manage the Forex advertise, regularly they overlook that the controller basically tosses in a disclaimer, which adds up to simply only a couple of expressions of caution. Fake News Fake news is an extreme issue for cryptographic forms of money, as these stories can be grabbed by editors in online networking channels and dispersed to a colossal gathering of people. Regularly, these stories are not reality checked and may even contain purposeful mistakes to influence the general's sentiment about a specific kind of coin. NEBULA SOLUTION The team behind Nebula project have taken time to research the problem facing th current Crypto Exchanges, they came up with some amazing features that will transform the 21st Century trading experience. – Demo. The group gives a remarkable exhibit venture in which we can watch outlines from TradingView and significantly more. – Fiat Trading. The engineers of Nebula guarantee to make conditions for exchanging the monetary forms (specifically, EUR and USD). For this situation, the store alternatives will be very sheltered, and the method of KYC is disentangled. – Purse. The Nebula Exchange venture offers a wallet with the capacity to make a few marks. The wallet will incorporate every one of the highlights that are normal for this innovation. – Numismatics. The last rundown of monetary standards the Nebula task will coordinate with isn't yet known. Be that as it may, there is as of now data that numerous trades will be accessible inside the trade, which are seldom accessible on different trades. This, obviously, describes the undertaking from the best side. Ostensible parameters. Every dealer can participate in voting and give and assess a specific task. On the affirmations of the delegates of the undertaking it will be like the assessment devices from Amazon. Thus, a wide range of con artists, ventures without content, will have a powerless rating, which will encourage tenderfoots and even proficient merchants on the planet to make certain decisions about either venture. – Mobile applications. As of now this year the Nebula group will dispatch versatile applications (for Android and iOS gadgets). Clients will have the capacity to completely exchange on the trade even while sitting in transport! – Security. The most imperative segment of the Nebula stage is an abnormal state of security. The framework will utilize complex scrambled chilly stockpiling, clients will be dependably shielded from robberies and robbery. PROJECT ROADMAP The project will follow a timeline, it is the desire of the team that all aspect of the roadmap is actualize at the state time frame. PHASE ONE: Q4 2017 -project launch. PHASE TWO: Q1 2018 -web and mobile platform completion. -new website. -private beta. PHASE THREE: Q2 2018 -web and mobile platfrom launch. -pairings with ETH, USDT and EURT. -ICO. PHASE FOUR: Q3 2018. -listing of NESC tokens. -pairings with BTC. -expansion to non-ERC20 currencies. -listing of security tokens. PHASE FIVE: Q4 2018 -mobile app launch on android. -pairings with KRW, JPY. TEAM INFORMATION This document contains a lot of information about the brightest representatives of the project team, but neither here nor in the web page there is no link to the profile on the social network. The founder of the project, Vincent Jacques, a successful investor and entrepreneur. He was a strategic Advisor at BCG for 2 years. As a student, he developed a virtual trading platform. TOKEN AND ICO INFORMATION The token sale is ongoing with percentage bonus for early purchase, fund generated during the crowdsale will be used for development of the platform for smooth runnings. Find the details of the ICO below; Token Name: Nebula Token Ticker: NESC Token Price: USD 0.40 Private Pre-Sale Soft Cap: USD 500,000 Public Sale Hard Cap: USD 20,000,000 Upper Cap on Total Tokens generated: 100,000,000 CONCLUSION The Nebula Exchange will transform the traditional way crypto Exchange operates, although there may be other similar project that tries to look into crypto exchange but Nebula seems to be the best with it Competent Team be rest assured that Nebula will surely be the Best CRYPTO Exchange. Kindly visit the links below for more information ICO Page: https://nebula.exchange/ico Author: Amusty12
There is little doubt that XRP is one of the most efficient ways of transferring value globaly. It has the potential to topple SWIFT and create enormous amount of value for any person or institution dealing with global remittance, Forex and liquidity provision. Value in utility and usability is already proven. As more participants join the incentive program (like Bitstamp), the objective of XRP as a bridge currency will get closer and closer to fruition. If someone wants to transfer say 10k of USD to EUR to purchase goods and services they can do so instantly with the fraction of the cost to existing channels. But for this to occur with 10m or 10b between large corporations will require enormous amount of liquidity which is currently non available in XRP. Not unless the value of XRP increases substantially. For that to happen you need the financial institutions and exchanges to also form part of the incentive program. That's Ripples vision and most of the work is around that. There is good reason to believe that 2017 would see a lot more joining this program and liquidity in XRP pairs could soar. This should positively affect the price as there would be more demand for XRP but it's not the primary driver on price. That's because XRP as a bridge currency is going to be bought and sold instantaneously to transfer value so demand is not going to increase solely on this. It can only increase if the market wants to with liquidity providers choosing to hold more XRP (liquidity) and investors adding buying pressure (speculation). So it appears that for XRP to go up in value it requires more liquidity and speculation which in itself requires a higher value of XRP. It's a chicken egg analogy but illustrates that market belief in XRP would determine a higher value which is required to be ultimately successful in its utility.
I have just recently picked up a book on Forex trading, downloaded the thinkorswim platform, and now have a 60 day paper money trading account to use before going live. I have a degree Economics from a Big Ten school, so do I have a good fundamental base knowledge on both how currencies derive their value, as well as how the equity market operates. Now, about 30% into the book, I can understand that the currency pair is of no intrinsic value, nor does it appreciate over the long term in general cases (being that it is a ratio + non dividend paying), and all of the methods to identifying trends introduced so far. Now, what I don't understand is 1) What exactly you're holding when say, you go long on the USD/EUR, for example. 2) Is the currency pair market essentially all options that people are trading, and if so, how do you/ do you exercise that option in any case? And 3) Not only that but what are exactly, after a successful trade say, the mechanics behind the trade (profit derived) that will result in a an addition of money your account? That much is a bit lost on me so far, I would greatly appreciate any clarification
Non-USD pairs on BTC-E are Not Returning to Market Value
Non-USD pairs at BTC-E are not returning to their fair market value. https://btc-e.com/ While in terms of USD, BTCe quotes are 3$ lower compared to the general market ($466 compared to $469 BitStamp) in terms of Euros, Pounds or Rubles prices are over 5% higher and have been for days. BTC/EUR BTCE 377 Kraken 367 Plus if you look at the exchange rates on the BTCe's website, the EUUSD is quoted at 1.2330, actual exchange rate is currently at 1.2930. The Pound is quoted at 1.5093, actual forex exchange rate is 1.6220. Why are all NON-USD currencies trading so cheap on BTC-E? In the past year I've noticed these small arbitrage opportunities before but they used to be gone in less then 1 day. This has been going on for 4 days now.
How long has this been going on? I only noticed the discrepancies 4 days ago.
Alright, so we’ve breezed through several terms and concepts when it comes to trading Forex currency pairs. At this point, you should have a firm understanding of what a currency pair is as well as the dynamics of buying and selling. If not, feel free to review the material above as many times as necessary before moving on. Now it’s time for the meat and potatoes of the lesson. Currency ... Pairs are always involved in forex because you are always trading one currency against another. You always have to sell one currency in order to buy another. If you think about it, it’s logical. You cannot buy dollars with dollars, you have to buy them by exchanging another currency for them. So that’s your pair – the dollar in this case, plus the other currency that you exchange for ... The forex pairs which are correlated are EUR/USD, NZD/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. These are the four mostly correlated currency pairs in the forex market. In the forex market, currencies are always quoted in a pair, which means one currency value against the other. For example, the price of Swiss Franc against the price of British Pound, the price of Canadian Dollar against the price of US ... Not surprisingly, these two pairs make up much of global daily volume. At FOREX.com you can trade from over 50 currency pairs including majors, minors and exotic pairs. Find out more about trading fx pairs. Visit our currency pair pages for more information on underlying influencers, spreads, charts, research and more - or open a Demo account ... It is one of the most traded currency pairs on Forex with low spread. Stability is one of the traits of the CHF but it does not mean that there are no opportunities for trading. It is an easy-to-follow currency pair with low spreads that range from 0.5 to 5 pips. The average spread (1.2 pip) to profit ratio is 2.6% on the daily average range (45 pip). EUR/JPY, non-USD pair with low spread ... Not surprisingly, these two pairs make up much of global daily volume. At FOREX.com you can trade from over 50 currency pairs including majors, minors and exotic pairs. Find out more about trading fx pairs. Visit our currency pair pages for more information on underlying influencers, spreads, charts, research and more - or open a Demo account ... Forex currency pairs are written as XXX/YYY or simply XXXYYY. Here, XXX is the base currency and YYY is the quote currency. The currencies are listed as a three-letter code, which tends to be formed of two letters that stand for the region, and one standing for the currency itself. For example,
USD Pairs - US Dollar Forex Trading Currency Pairs (2004 ...
This video deals with the foundational element of Forex trading - the currency pair. As we have covered in previous videos, all currencies are priced with re... #SyedRahman This is a mastery course for both the beginner and advanced Forex traders, who needs to know the currency pairs very well to choose the most prof... The AUD NZD is the best Forex pair to trade, and I explain why. Those who want to trade the No Nonsense Forex way need to pay close attention to this one. No... Share your videos with friends, family, and the world Certain currency pairs will always do you better than others will. Is it worth going in and tweaking your setting on your algorithm just to try and improve t... Which currency pairs should you trade as a beginner? In this video, I breakdown what you should be doing, and what you should be LOOKING FOR if you've just s... #USD #USDollar #TradingPairs #Currency #Forex USD - US Dollar vs 21 Forex Trading Currency Pairs This racing chart represents the search interest of the USD ...